Wednesday, 07 January 2015

Biomass Development and Investment Outlook in China. A White Paper by Jorrit Gosens (PhD)

Renewables will account for nearly half of the increase in global power generation by 2035 – with China generating more than the US, Japan and the EU combined – according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest annual World Energy Outlook 2013 report released in October. Against this backdrop, there will certainly be related growth in the equipment supply and infrastructure to support the biomass industry in China. Jorrit Gosens reviews the issues affecting the NPV (Net Present Value) of proposed and operational projects in China, and evaluates factors such as rising fuel prices; decreasing heat and carbon credit trade potential; difficulties in finding a market for heat, and the relative efficiency of CFB vs. Grate Firing boiler systems. Gosens concludes that under current and likely market circumstances, boiler efficiency and plant availability will play increasingly significant and defining roles in determining potential project success. His research demonstrates that projects using CFB boilers are less likely to achieve positive NPV, whilst those investing in high pressure, high temperature, superior quality boiler systems are more likely to achieve positive long term results.

Jorrit Gosens, PhD is a leading academic and consultant in the renewable energy sector. Having previously advised and authored Government environmental schemes in the Netherlands, for the last 4 years he has been focused on researching Chinese renewable energy issues through his position at the prestigious Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing.  During this time he has spoken at numerous conferences, and published a number of papers addressing renewable energy policy and development in China.

Download available below.

An adaptation of this white paper has been published in the Journal of Biomass and Bioenergy; see